A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments cover identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has possesses something to learn from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
